Ardisia
3yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 99
Ayr · Ladbrokes Ayr Gold Cup (Heritage Handicap) · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
84%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 5.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Goodwood | 2 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-02 | Chester | 1 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-06-20 | Royal Ascot | 1 | 15th | 13th | +1 |
| 2026-06-05 | Epsom Downs | 1 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-05-16 | Newbury | 1 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-05-01 | Ascot | 1 | 4th | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 25. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10/2025 | 2nd | 18/1 | 5% | 90% | +0.85 |
| 01/11/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 54% | +0.38 |
| 18/04/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 14% | -0.12 |
| 01/05/2026 | 4th | 50/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 16/05/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 05/06/2026 | 3rd | 18/1 | 5% | 60% | +0.55 |
| 20/06/2026 | 15th | 100/1 | 0% | 7% | +0.07 |
| 02/08/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 63% | +0.47 |
| 30/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 89% | +0.18 |