IvyArcIvyArc
7

Binhareer

4yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 103

Ayr · Ladbrokes Ayr Gold Cup (Heritage Handicap) · 6f

#2

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

6%

Rank

#2

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Smart C&D winner (can carry head awkwardly) who produced a taking performance to land last season's Coral Sprint Trophy at York (good-to-soft). Hasn't had his conditions either start since an eye-catching reappearance second. Well treated on that form and very likely to have a big pot in him.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength38%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.8
Today: 2
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Kempton 28/05/2025 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 81 · 7f Sta 131 · below its mark28/05/2025 · OR 81 par28/054OR 814 @ Ayr 07/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 79 · 6f Goo 135 · beat its mark07/07/2025 · OR 79 par4 @ Newmarket 16/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 87 · 6f GF 137 · beat its mark16/08/2025 · OR 87 par16/084OR 872 @ Ascot 06/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 19 · OR 90 · 6f GS 131 · beat its mark06/09/2025 · OR 90 par2 @ Ayr 20/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 25 · OR 90 · 6f Sft 134 · beat its mark20/09/2025 · OR 90 par20/092OR 902 @ York 11/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 19 · OR 89 · 6f Gd 123 · beat its mark11/10/2025 · OR 89 par2 @ York 13/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 22 · OR 99 · 6f Gd 134 · beat its mark13/05/2026 · OR 99 par13/052OR 992 @ Royal Ascot 20/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 27 · OR 104 · 6f GF 134 · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 104 par1 @ Newbury 18/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 103 · 6f GF 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/07/2026 · OR 103 par18/071OR 103projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 25
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-18Newbury14th2nd+1
2026-06-20Royal Ascot26th6th0
2026-05-13York22nd2nd0
2025-10-11York21st1st0
2025-09-20Ayr26th6th0
2025-09-06Ascot23rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/056/0913/0518/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 25100% of fieldRange 1-15 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength77%

Delivery trend -0.5% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 25.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/05/20257th5/174%25%-0.49
07/07/20251st13/266%100%+0.34
16/08/20252nd7/282%90%+0.08
06/09/20253rd3/184%89%+0.05
20/09/20256th5/174%79%+0.05
11/10/20251st9/276%100%+0.24
13/05/20262nd11/486%95%+0.10
20/06/20266th4/179%81%+0.02
18/07/20264th5/287%50%-0.37