15
Bodhi Bear
4yo Gelding · 9-1 · OR 99
Ayr · Ladbrokes Ayr Gold Cup (Heritage Handicap) · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲3
Strength44%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 10.4 /10 (raw 6.9)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 2
Class gap: -3.2
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Curragh | 1 | 4th | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-07-18 | Curragh | BHA101 | 18th | 28th | −8 |
| 2026-06-28 | Curragh | 1 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-06-07 | Navan | BHA95 | 1st | 10th | −8 |
| 2026-05-23 | Curragh | BHA95 | 5th | 14th | −8 |
| 2026-04-27 | Naas | 1 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 2567% of fieldRange 20-25 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -3.6% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 9th of 25. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07/2025 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 47% | +0.10 |
| 20/09/2025 | 20th | 18/1 | 5% | 21% | +0.16 |
| 28/03/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 27/04/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 23/05/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 81% | +0.34 |
| 07/06/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 28/06/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 18/07/2026 | 18th | 17/2 | 55% | 11% | -0.45 |
| 09/08/2026 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 25% | +0.20 |