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17

Caburn

4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 98

Ayr · Ladbrokes Ayr Gold Cup (Heritage Handicap) · 6f

#9

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★ Timeform

Commentary

In-form 4-y-o who was held by Tuco Salamanca at Newcastle prior to finishing 4¼ lengths fourth in a Newmarket listed race last time. Unlikely to have enough in hand to win a race of this nature.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength57%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 6.4)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.8
Today: 2
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack1 @ Newbury 17/05/2025 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 99 · 6f GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/05/2025 · OR 99 par17/051OR 991 @ Royal Ascot 21/06/2025 · Pos 11th of 15 · OR 97 · 7f GF 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/06/2025 · OR 97 par2 @ York 26/07/2025 · Pos 14th of 19 · OR 94 · 6f Goo 124 · beat its mark26/07/2025 · OR 94 par26/072OR 943 @ Yarmouth 18/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 92 · 6f3y GS 135 · beat its mark18/09/2025 · OR 92 par2 @ Southwell 01/01/2026 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR 98 · 6f16y Std 132 · beat its mark01/01/2026 · OR 98 par1/012OR 981 @ Doncaster 28/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 97 · 6f2y Goo 136 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/03/2026 · OR 97 par2 @ Haydock 25/04/2026 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 100 · 7f37y Goo 133 · below its mark25/04/2026 · OR 100 par25/042OR 1002 @ Newcastle 27/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 100 · 6f Sta 138 · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 100 par1 @ Newmarket 22/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 98 · 6f Gd 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 98 par22/081OR 98projClass-projected finish: 15th of 25
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-22Newmarket14th3rd+1
2026-06-27Newcastle26th6th0
2026-04-25Haydock212th12th0
2026-03-28Doncaster13rd2nd+1
2026-01-01Southwell28th8th0
2025-09-18Yarmouth31st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/0518/0925/0422/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 2563% of fieldRange 8-25 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength23%

Delivery trend -1.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 25.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/05/20256th33/10%44%+0.44
21/06/202511th66/10%29%+0.29
26/07/202514th22/10%28%+0.28
18/09/20251st5/174%100%+0.26
01/01/20268th16/116%42%+0.26
28/03/20263rd25/10%82%+0.82
25/04/202612th8/158%0%-0.58
27/06/20266th14/126%62%+0.35
22/08/20264th40/10%50%+0.50