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19

Candy

4yo Colt · 8-13 · OR 97

Ayr · Ladbrokes Ayr Gold Cup (Heritage Handicap) · 6f

#12

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#12

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Went with plenty of enthusiasm when an impressive winner of the Silver Cup here last year. However, has looked one with problems this season and hard to be confident that the addition of a first-time hood will spark a full-scale revival.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength37%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 13.4 /10 (raw 8.9)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.8
Today: 2
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack1 @ Haydock 24/05/2025 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 99 · 6f Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/05/2025 · OR 99 par24/051OR 992 @ Royal Ascot 20/06/2025 · Pos 20th of 24 · OR 98 · 5f GF 133 · below its mark20/06/2025 · OR 98 par2 @ Newmarket 10/07/2025 · Pos 17th of 17 · OR 95 · 6f GF 126 · below its mark10/07/2025 · OR 95 par10/072OR 952 @ Ascot 06/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 19 · OR 92 · 6f GS 133 · beat its mark06/09/2025 · OR 92 par2 @ Ayr 20/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 25 · OR 92 · 6f Sft 136 · beat its mark20/09/2025 · OR 92 par20/092OR 921 @ Ascot 04/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 98 · 5f Sft 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/10/2025 · OR 98 par2 @ Royal Ascot 20/06/2026 · Pos 27th of 27 · OR 98 · 6f GF 128 · below its mark20/06/2026 · OR 98 par20/062OR 982 @ Goodwood 28/07/2026 · Pos 23rd of 23 · OR 97 · 5f Goo 131 · below its mark28/07/2026 · OR 97 par2 @ York 19/08/2026 · Pos 21st of 21 · OR 97 · 5f89y Goo 131 · below its mark19/08/2026 · OR 97 par19/082OR 97projClass-projected finish: 24th of 25
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-19York221th21th0
2026-07-28Goodwood223th23th0
2026-06-20Royal Ascot227th27th0
2025-10-04Ascot16th5th+1
2025-09-20Ayr21st1st0
2025-09-06Ascot24th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/056/0920/0619/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish18th of 2529% of fieldRange 17-25 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -4.5% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 18th of 25. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/05/20257th50/10%25%+0.25
20/06/202520th40/10%17%+0.17
10/07/202517th50/10%0%0.00
06/09/20254th28/10%83%+0.83
20/09/20251st8/158%100%+0.42
04/10/20256th9/276%44%-0.32
20/06/202627th50/10%0%0.00
28/07/202623rd40/10%0%0.00
19/08/202621st25/10%0%0.00