14
Dance In The Storm
4yo Filly · 9-1 · OR 99
Ayr · Ladbrokes Ayr Gold Cup (Heritage Handicap) · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength24%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.2
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | York | 2 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-02 | Chester | 2 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Royal Ascot | 2 | 17th | 17th | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Epsom Downs | 2 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-06 | Chester | 3 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-09-27 | Newmarket | 2 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 2579% of fieldRange 3-24 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength48%
Delivery trend -1.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 25.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07/2025 | 4th | 11/8 | 93% | 63% | -0.30 |
| 02/08/2025 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 93% | +0.67 |
| 21/08/2025 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 88% | -0.03 |
| 27/09/2025 | 10th | 11/4 | 86% | 25% | -0.61 |
| 06/05/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 05/06/2026 | 5th | 15/8 | 90% | 73% | -0.17 |
| 18/06/2026 | 17th | 17/2 | 55% | 41% | -0.15 |
| 02/08/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 22/08/2026 | 4th | 85/40 | 89% | 84% | -0.05 |