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11

Evening Saigon

4yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 100

Ayr · Ladbrokes Ayr Gold Cup (Heritage Handicap) · 6f

#20

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#20

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Had some strong form prior to getting back on the up with success in the Stewards' Cup last month. Greater emphasis on stamina told when fading into fifth (narrowly behind Dance In The Storm) in strong renewal of the Constantine at York (good to soft) since. May again find a few too strong.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.3
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Musselburgh 09/08/2024 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR - · 5f1y Goo 1359/0824 @ Newmarket 24/08/2024 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 84 · 6f GS 137 · beat its mark24/08/2024 · OR 84 par4 @ Chelmsford City 16/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 85 · 6f Std 137 · beat its mark16/10/2025 · OR 85 par16/104OR 852 @ Doncaster 08/11/2025 · Pos 22nd of 22 · OR 89 · 6f2y Hvy 125 · below its mark08/11/2025 · OR 89 par3 @ Newcastle 13/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 89 · 6f Std 129 · beat its mark13/04/2026 · OR 89 par13/043OR 893 @ Goodwood 01/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 92 · 6f Gd 137 · beat its mark01/05/2026 · OR 92 par2 @ Royal Ascot 20/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 27 · OR 97 · 6f GF 127 · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 97 par20/062OR 972 @ Goodwood 01/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 27 · OR 96 · 6f GF 126 · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 96 par2 @ York 22/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 20 · OR 100 · 6f Goo 134 · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 100 par22/082OR 100projClass-projected finish: 5th of 25
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-22York25th5th0
2026-08-01Goodwood21st1st0
2026-06-20Royal Ascot27th7th0
2026-05-01Goodwood32nd3rd−1
2026-04-13Newcastle31st2nd−1
2025-11-08Doncaster222th22th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/088/1120/0622/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 2554% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength99%

Delivery trend +11.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 25. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/08/20243rd1/195%50%-0.45
24/08/20242nd11/893%89%-0.04
16/10/20251st9/488%100%+0.12
08/11/202522nd9/153%0%-0.53
13/04/20261st6/492%100%+0.08
01/05/20262nd11/271%88%+0.16
20/06/20267th25/10%77%+0.77
01/08/20261st16/116%100%+0.84
22/08/20265th15/261%79%+0.18