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22

Fahrenheit Seven

5yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 97

Ayr · Ladbrokes Ayr Gold Cup (Heritage Handicap) · 6f

#21

Rank

Odds

50/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#21

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Made a forgivable stable debut in 2025 renewal of this race before landing back-to-back 5f all-weather handicaps. Continued recent spell in the doldrums when trailing the field in the Constantine at York (125/1) last time. In good hands but leap of faith required at present.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength36%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 11.6 /10 (raw 5.9)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.8
Today: 2
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Hamilton 05/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 86 · 6f6y Goo 125 · beat its mark05/06/2025 · OR 86 par5/062OR 862 @ Ayr 20/09/2025 · Pos 19th of 25 · OR 93 · 6f Sft 126 · beat its mark20/09/2025 · OR 93 par3 @ Newcastle 06/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 92 · 5f Std 132 · beat its mark06/02/2026 · OR 92 par6/023OR 922 @ Southwell 21/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 99 · 4f214y Std 129 · beat its mark21/03/2026 · OR 99 par1 @ Naas 27/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 15 · OR 103 · 5f Gd 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/04/2026 · OR 103 par27/041OR 1032 @ York 13/05/2026 · Pos 22nd of 22 · OR 103 · 6f Gd 138 · below its mark13/05/2026 · OR 103 par2 @ Newcastle 27/06/2026 · Pos 13th of 14 · OR 102 · 6f Sta 140 · below its mark27/06/2026 · OR 102 par27/062OR 1022 @ Ascot 08/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 100 · 5f GF 140 · below its mark08/08/2026 · OR 100 par2 @ York 22/08/2026 · Pos 20th of 20 · OR 97 · 6f Goo 131 · below its mark22/08/2026 · OR 97 par22/082OR 97projClass-projected finish: 25th of 25
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-22York220th20th0
2026-08-08Ascot28th8th0
2026-06-27Newcastle213th13th0
2026-05-13York222th22th0
2026-04-27Naas17th6th+1
2026-03-21Southwell21st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/0621/0327/0622/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish24th of 254% of fieldRange 25-25 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -4.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 24th of 25. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/06/20251st2/189%100%+0.11
20/09/202519th11/142%25%-0.17
06/02/20261st7/163%100%+0.37
21/03/20261st5/287%100%+0.13
27/04/20267th3/184%57%-0.27
13/05/202622nd20/10%0%0.00
27/06/202613th11/142%8%-0.34
08/08/20268th17/255%22%-0.33
22/08/202620th125/10%0%0.00