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5yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 97

Ayr · Ladbrokes Ayr Gold Cup (Heritage Handicap) · 6f

#16

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#16

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Three-time winner in the US earlier in his career. Returned to his best when successful at Thirsk (6f) in May. Creditable third in a Shergar Cup event at Ascot (5f) either side of forgivable efforts at Goodwood. Weighted to outrun his odds but probably doesn't want too much rain.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength25%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 9.5 /10 (raw 6.6)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.0
Today: 2
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Goodwood 01/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 98 · 5f Gd 129 · beat its mark01/05/2026 · OR 98 par1/052OR 982 @ York 13/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 22 · OR 95 · 6f Gd 130 · beat its mark13/05/2026 · OR 95 par2 @ Thirsk 31/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 95 · 6f Goo 131 · beat its mark31/05/2026 · OR 95 par31/052OR 952 @ Royal Ascot 20/06/2026 · Pos 13th of 27 · OR 95 · 6f GF 130 · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 95 par2 @ Windsor 29/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 99 · 6f12y GF 141 · beat its mark29/06/2026 · OR 99 par29/062OR 992 @ Ascot 11/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 15 · OR 98 · 5f GF 133 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 98 par2 @ Goodwood 01/08/2026 · Pos 24th of 27 · OR 99 · 6f GF 129 · below its mark01/08/2026 · OR 99 par1/082OR 992 @ Ascot 08/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 98 · 5f GF 138 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 98 par2 @ Goodwood 30/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 97 · 6f Sft 136 · below its mark30/08/2026 · OR 97 par30/082OR 97projClass-projected finish: 22nd of 25
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-30Goodwood210th10th0
2026-08-08Ascot23rd3rd0
2026-08-01Goodwood224th24th0
2026-07-11Ascot23rd3rd0
2026-06-29Windsor24th4th0
2026-06-20Royal Ascot213th13th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/0520/061/0830/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish19th of 2525% of fieldRange 24-25 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -10.9% per run

What the projection says

Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 19th of 25. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/05/20266th40/10%50%+0.50
13/05/20263rd50/10%90%+0.90
31/05/20261st6/168%100%+0.32
20/06/202613th50/10%54%+0.54
29/06/20264th9/488%67%-0.21
11/07/20263rd11/142%86%+0.44
01/08/202624th33/10%12%+0.12
08/08/20263rd5/174%78%+0.04
30/08/202610th12/137%0%-0.37