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13

Far Above Dream

4yo Gelding · 9-1 · OR 99

Ayr · Ladbrokes Ayr Gold Cup (Heritage Handicap) · 6f

#13

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#13

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Improving sprinter has been another success story for his excellent yard (21 lb higher than his win on handicap/stable debut last June). Went agonisingly close in a York handicap that's working out extremely well last time, beating several of today's rivals. One to be feared off an unchanged mark.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength38%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.3
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Hamilton 22/08/2025 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 84 · 5f7y Goo 132 · below its mark22/08/2025 · OR 84 par22/083OR 844 @ Goodwood 02/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 83 · 6f Hvy 136 · beat its mark02/09/2025 · OR 83 par2 @ Ayr 20/09/2025 · Pos 15th of 25 · OR 84 · 6f Sft 133 · beat its mark20/09/2025 · OR 84 par20/092OR 843 @ Goodwood 12/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 87 · 6f Gd 129 · beat its mark12/10/2025 · OR 87 par3 @ Goodwood 01/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 89 · 6f Gd 134 · beat its mark01/05/2026 · OR 89 par1/053OR 892 @ Newbury 16/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 95 · 6f Goo 129 · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 95 par2 @ Royal Ascot 20/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 27 · OR 99 · 6f GF 129 · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 99 par20/062OR 992 @ Goodwood 01/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 27 · OR 99 · 6f GF 129 · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 99 par2 @ York 22/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 20 · OR 99 · 6f Goo 133 · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 99 par22/082OR 99projClass-projected finish: 1st of 25
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-22York22nd2nd0
2026-08-01Goodwood26th6th0
2026-06-20Royal Ascot24th4th0
2026-05-16Newbury21st1st0
2026-05-01Goodwood31st2nd−1
2025-10-12Goodwood31st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/0812/1020/0622/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 2583% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +11.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 25. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/08/20256th5/174%0%-0.74
02/09/20251st6/168%100%+0.32
20/09/202515th20/10%42%+0.42
12/10/20251st11/271%100%+0.29
01/05/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
16/05/20261st17/255%100%+0.45
20/06/20264th28/10%88%+0.88
01/08/20266th6/168%81%+0.12
22/08/20262nd16/116%95%+0.79