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10

Flash Harry

4yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 96

Ayr · Ladbrokes Ayr Gold Cup (Heritage Handicap) · 6f

#15

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#15

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Poorly placed in this corresponding event 12 months ago. Justified strong support to see off Ardisia by a length at Goodwood last time. The ground will hold no fears for him, however, he probably needs a fair bit more to defy a 5-lb penalty.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength36%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 9.4 /10 (raw 6.1)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.8
Today: 2
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Bath 14/06/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR - · 5f10y GF 13514/0652 @ Ascot 09/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 95 · 6f Goo 137 · beat its mark09/08/2025 · OR 95 par2 @ Goodwood 24/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 95 · 6f Goo 128 · beat its mark24/08/2025 · OR 95 par24/082OR 952 @ Ayr 20/09/2025 · Pos 16th of 25 · OR 95 · 6f Sft 131 · beat its mark20/09/2025 · OR 95 par1 @ Salisbury 23/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 101 · 6f Gd 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/05/2026 · OR 101 par23/051OR 1012 @ Royal Ascot 20/06/2026 · Pos 15th of 27 · OR 100 · 6f GF 130 · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 100 par2 @ Goodwood 01/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 27 · OR 98 · 6f GF 128 · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 98 par1/082OR 982 @ York 22/08/2026 · Pos 11th of 20 · OR 96 · 6f Goo 130 · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 96 par2 @ Goodwood 30/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 94 · 6f Sft 133 · beat its mark30/08/2026 · OR 94 par30/082OR 94projClass-projected finish: 8th of 25
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-30Goodwood21st1st0
2026-08-22York211th11th0
2026-08-01Goodwood29th9th0
2026-06-20Royal Ascot215th15th0
2026-05-23Salisbury16th5th+1
2025-09-20Ayr216th16th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/0620/091/0830/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 2571% of fieldRange 2-17 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength64%

Delivery trend +6.1% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 25. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/06/20252nd1/398%83%-0.15
09/08/20253rd7/163%78%+0.15
24/08/20251st13/891%100%+0.09
20/09/202516th12/137%38%+0.01
23/05/20266th7/163%44%-0.19
20/06/202615th33/10%46%+0.46
01/08/20269th33/10%69%+0.69
22/08/202611th25/10%47%+0.47
30/08/20261st15/890%100%+0.10