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24

Hammer The Hammer

4yo Colt · 8-12 · OR 96

Ayr · Ladbrokes Ayr Gold Cup (Heritage Handicap) · 6f

#25

Rank

Odds

50/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#25

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fifth in last year's renewal of this race prior to finishing 5 lengths behind Binhareer in the Coral Sprint Trophy. Disappointing on the back of a couple of breathing operations this season, faring no better for cheekpieces when well beaten off his much-reduced mark in the Constantine last time.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 13.3 /10 (raw 7.7)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.0
Today: 2
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Chester 07/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 82 · 6f17y Gd 133 · beat its mark07/05/2025 · OR 82 par7/053OR 822 @ Royal Ascot 20/06/2025 · Pos 2nd of 24 · OR 100 · 5f GF 135 · beat its mark20/06/2025 · OR 100 par2 @ Goodwood 02/08/2025 · Pos 15th of 27 · OR 104 · 6f Goo 131 · beat its mark02/08/2025 · OR 104 par2/082OR 1042 @ Ayr 20/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 25 · OR 104 · 6f Sft 135 · beat its mark20/09/2025 · OR 104 par2 @ York 11/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 19 · OR 104 · 6f Gd 138 · beat its mark11/10/2025 · OR 104 par11/102OR 1042 @ York 14/05/2026 · Pos 14th of 21 · OR 103 · 5f Gd 138 · below its mark14/05/2026 · OR 103 par2 @ Royal Ascot 20/06/2026 · Pos 16th of 27 · OR 101 · 6f GF 131 · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 101 par20/062OR 1012 @ Goodwood 01/08/2026 · Pos 21st of 27 · OR 99 · 6f GF 129 · below its mark01/08/2026 · OR 99 par2 @ York 22/08/2026 · Pos 18th of 20 · OR 96 · 6f Goo 130 · below its mark22/08/2026 · OR 96 par22/082OR 96projClass-projected finish: 23rd of 25
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-22York218th18th0
2026-08-01Goodwood221th21th0
2026-06-20Royal Ascot216th16th0
2026-05-14York214th14th0
2025-10-11York26th6th0
2025-09-20Ayr25th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/0520/0920/0622/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish22nd of 2513% of fieldRange 10-25 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength16%

Delivery trend -0.1% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 22nd of 25.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/05/20251st9/276%100%+0.24
20/06/20252nd9/276%96%+0.19
02/08/202515th9/276%46%-0.30
20/09/20255th20/10%83%+0.83
11/10/20256th13/266%72%+0.06
14/05/202614th7/163%35%-0.28
20/06/202616th22/10%42%+0.42
01/08/202621st33/10%23%+0.23
22/08/202618th40/10%11%+0.11