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18

Pellitory

4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 98

Ayr · Ladbrokes Ayr Gold Cup (Heritage Handicap) · 6f

#18

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#18

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Versatile, useful type who notched a fourth career 7f victory at Haydock last month. Ran at least as well in defeat when 3 lengths third at Goodwood (7f) since. Probably falls short pitched into a very competitive sprint event here. First-time tongue strap added.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength24%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 11.3 /10 (raw 6.6)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.5
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack1 @ Newmarket 22/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 101 · 6f Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/08/2025 · OR 101 par22/081OR 1011 @ York 07/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 99 · 6f Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/09/2025 · OR 99 par2 @ Newmarket 27/09/2025 · Pos 13th of 13 · OR 99 · 7f GF 135 · below its mark27/09/2025 · OR 99 par27/092OR 992 @ Ascot 09/05/2026 · Pos 16th of 28 · OR 97 · 7f Goo 132 · beat its mark09/05/2026 · OR 97 par2 @ Royal Ascot 18/06/2026 · Pos 26th of 28 · OR 95 · 7f GF 128 · below its mark18/06/2026 · OR 95 par18/062OR 953 @ York 10/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 17 · OR 93 · 7f Goo 133 · beat its mark10/07/2026 · OR 93 par3 @ Goodwood 29/07/2026 · Pos 16th of 20 · OR 94 · 7f Goo 135 · below its mark29/07/2026 · OR 94 par29/073OR 943 @ Haydock 08/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 94 · 6f212y Goo 141 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 94 par2 @ Goodwood 29/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 98 · 7f GS 132 · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 98 par29/082OR 98projClass-projected finish: 11th of 25
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29Goodwood23rd3rd0
2026-08-08Haydock31st2nd−1
2026-07-29Goodwood316th17th−1
2026-07-10York32nd3rd−1
2026-06-18Royal Ascot226th26th0
2026-05-09Ascot216th16th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/089/0529/0729/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish17th of 2533% of fieldRange 12-25 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength26%

Delivery trend -1.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 17th of 25.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/08/20255th28/10%50%+0.50
07/09/20255th50/10%50%+0.50
27/09/202513th28/10%0%0.00
09/05/202616th40/10%44%+0.44
18/06/202626th50/10%7%+0.07
10/07/20262nd14/126%94%+0.67
29/07/202616th22/10%21%+0.21
08/08/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
29/08/20263rd11/142%80%+0.38