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23

Red Spells Danger

3yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 98

Ayr · Ladbrokes Ayr Gold Cup (Heritage Handicap) · 6f

#23

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#23

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Very useful handicapper. Benefitted from his sights being lowered when recording a third 6f handicap victory of the year at Ascot last month. Wide draw/softer conditions offer some mitigation for rare poor effort in the Constantine handicap last time. May just find this too competitive.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.3
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Catterick 08/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 79 · 7f6y Goo 128 · beat its mark08/04/2026 · OR 79 par8/044OR 795 @ Southwell 23/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 79 · 7f14y Std 127 · beat its mark23/04/2026 · OR 79 par4 @ Ripon 08/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 79 · 6f Gd 132 · beat its mark08/05/2026 · OR 79 par8/054OR 794 @ Hamilton 17/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 79 · 6f6y Gd 129 · beat its mark17/05/2026 · OR 79 par2 @ York 13/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 22 · OR 89 · 6f Goo 121 · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 89 par13/062OR 892 @ Newmarket 09/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 93 · 6f Goo 127 · beat its mark09/07/2026 · OR 93 par2 @ York 25/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 21 · OR 93 · 6f Goo 126 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 93 par25/072OR 932 @ Ascot 08/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 92 · 6f GF 137 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 92 par2 @ York 22/08/2026 · Pos 17th of 20 · OR 98 · 6f Goo 129 · below its mark22/08/2026 · OR 98 par22/082OR 98projClass-projected finish: 14th of 25
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-22York217th17th0
2026-08-08Ascot21st1st0
2026-07-25York25th5th0
2026-07-09Newmarket24th4th0
2026-06-13York22nd2nd0
2026-05-17Hamilton41st3rd−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/0417/0525/0722/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish21st of 2517% of fieldRange 20-24 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▬
Strength11%

Delivery trend +1.1% per run

What the projection says

Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 21st of 25.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/04/20262nd11/486%90%+0.04
23/04/20262nd11/1094%88%-0.07
08/05/20261st1/16100%100%+0.00
17/05/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
13/06/20262nd7/282%95%+0.14
09/07/20264th5/174%75%+0.01
25/07/20265th4/179%80%+0.01
08/08/20261st2/189%100%+0.11
22/08/202617th18/15%16%+0.11