IvyArcIvyArc
9

Rock On Thunder

3yo Colt · 9-4 · OR 104

Ayr · Ladbrokes Ayr Gold Cup (Heritage Handicap) · 6f

#19

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#19

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Low-mileage 3-y-o whose standout effort came when runner-up in the Gimcrack at York last summer. Has undergone a breathing operation since finishing down the field in a Chester listed race last time, his opening mark looking decidedly harsh on this year's form.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼2
Strength75%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 6.1)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.5
Today: 2
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Leicester 27/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR - · 6f Gd 13327/0541 @ Royal Ascot 17/06/2025 · Pos 9th of 20 · OR - · 6f Goo 129 · HIGHER CLASS1 @ Newbury 18/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 95 · 6f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/07/2025 · OR 95 par18/071OR 951 @ York 22/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 95 · 6f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/08/2025 · OR 95 par1 @ Newbury 20/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 108 · 6f GS 129 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark20/09/2025 · OR 108 par20/091OR 1081 @ Haydock 23/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 110 · 6f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark23/05/2026 · OR 110 par1 @ Royal Ascot 19/06/2026 · Pos 15th of 22 · OR 109 · 6f GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark19/06/2026 · OR 109 par19/061OR 1091 @ Chester 02/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 107 · 6f17y Gd 127 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark02/08/2026 · OR 107 par2/081OR 107projClass-projected finish: 20th of 25
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-02Chester18th7th+1
2026-06-19Royal Ascot115th13th+2
2026-05-23Haydock16th4th+2
2025-09-20Newbury16th4th+2
2025-08-22York12nd0th+2
2025-07-18Newbury12nd1st+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/0522/0819/062/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish23rd of 258% of fieldRange 16-25 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength0%

Delivery trend -1.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 23rd of 25.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/05/20251st4/179%100%+0.21
17/06/20259th14/126%58%+0.32
18/07/20252nd3/184%75%-0.09
22/08/20252nd7/282%86%+0.04
20/09/20256th7/491%29%-0.62
23/05/20266th12/137%17%-0.20
19/06/202615th125/10%33%+0.33
02/08/20268th28/10%13%+0.13