12
Run Boy Run
5yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 100
Ayr · Ladbrokes Ayr Gold Cup (Heritage Handicap) · 6f
#10
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength51%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 0 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 9.9 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.5
Today: 2
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Goodwood | 2 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Goodwood | 2 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Ascot | 2 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Royal Ascot | 2 | 17th | 17th | 0 |
| 2026-03-28 | Meydan | ? | 11th | 9th | +2 |
| 2026-02-28 | Meydan | ? | 2nd | 0th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 2575% of fieldRange 9-23 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength36%
Delivery trend -3.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 25. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/01/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 58% | +0.58 |
| 30/01/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 54% | +0.54 |
| 20/02/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 28/02/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 93% | +0.77 |
| 28/03/2026 | 11th | 18/1 | 5% | 0% | -0.05 |
| 20/06/2026 | 17th | 40/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 11/07/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 79% | +0.31 |
| 28/07/2026 | 14th | 14/1 | 26% | 41% | +0.15 |
| 01/08/2026 | 15th | 22/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |