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Spycatcher

8yo Gelding · 9-13 · OR 111

Ayr · Ladbrokes Ayr Gold Cup (Heritage Handicap) · 6f

#6

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Multiple listed/Group 3 winner who came good around this time last year. Travelled well before lack of a recent run told in listed event at York (6f) latest. Cheekpieces on for only second time in his career and forecast rain will only benefit his chances on first handicap start since spring 2023.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼1
Strength64%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.7
Today: 2
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack1 @ Newcastle 28/06/2025 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 111 · 6f Std 131 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark28/06/2025 · OR 111 par28/061OR 111C1 @ Deauville 06/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 109 · 5f212y Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/07/2025 · OR 109 par1 @ Curragh 09/08/2025 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 109 · 6f Gd 133 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark09/08/2025 · OR 109 par9/081OR 1091 @ Curragh 28/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 108 · 6f Sft 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/09/2025 · OR 108 parC1 @ Chantilly 27/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 108 · 5f212y Ver 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/10/2025 · OR 108 par27/10C1OR 1081 @ Doncaster 08/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 110 · 6f2y Hvy 136 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/11/2025 · OR 110 par1 @ Doncaster 28/03/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 111 · 6f2y Goo 141 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark28/03/2026 · OR 111 par28/031OR 1111 @ Curragh 23/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 111 · 6f Gd 131 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark23/05/2026 · OR 111 par1 @ York 06/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 111 · 6f GS 130 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark06/09/2026 · OR 111 par6/091OR 111projClass-projected finish: 18th of 25
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-06York17th6th+1
2026-05-23Curragh110th8th+2
2026-03-28Doncaster110th9th+1
2025-11-08Doncaster11st0th+1
2025-10-27Chantilly?1st-1th+1
2025-09-28Curragh13rd1st+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/0628/0928/036/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 2546% of fieldRange 18-25 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -2.7% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 14th of 25. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/06/20257th9/153%25%-0.28
06/07/20252nd7/282%86%+0.04
09/08/20259th18/15%27%+0.22
28/09/20253rd9/153%80%+0.27
27/10/20251st7/282%100%+0.18
08/11/20251st4/179%100%+0.21
28/03/202610th10/382%18%-0.64
23/05/202610th9/153%0%-0.53
06/09/20267th18/15%25%+0.20