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5

Stratusnine

4yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 104

Ayr · Ladbrokes Ayr Gold Cup (Heritage Handicap) · 6f

#3

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Returns to Ayr for first time since breaking his maiden over C&D in 2024. Since developed into a smart handicapper, narrowly denied a double in the Stewards' Cup before a very creditable 1½-length sixth in a strong York handicap last time. Consistent sort who makes each-way appeal here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength24%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.2
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Kempton 11/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 92 · 6f Sta 129 · beat its mark11/02/2026 · OR 92 par11/022OR 922 @ Newcastle 19/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 91 · 6f Std 126 · beat its mark19/03/2026 · OR 91 par2 @ York 23/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 16 · OR 92 · 5f Goo 135 · beat its mark23/05/2026 · OR 92 par23/052OR 922 @ Royal Ascot 18/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 28 · OR 95 · 7f GF 128 · beat its mark18/06/2026 · OR 95 par3 @ Chester 27/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 95 · 6f17y Goo 142 · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 95 par27/063OR 952 @ York 25/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 21 · OR 95 · 6f Goo 133 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 95 par2 @ Goodwood 01/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 27 · OR 95 · 6f GF 131 · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 95 par1/082OR 952 @ York 19/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 21 · OR 104 · 5f89y Goo 138 · beat its mark19/08/2026 · OR 104 par2 @ York 22/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 20 · OR 104 · 6f Goo 138 · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 104 par22/082OR 104projClass-projected finish: 7th of 25
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-22York26th6th0
2026-08-19York26th6th0
2026-08-01Goodwood22nd2nd0
2026-07-25York21st1st0
2026-06-27Chester33rd4th−1
2026-06-18Royal Ascot28th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/0218/061/0822/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 2588% of fieldRange 1-23 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength55%

Delivery trend +4.8% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 25. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/02/20265th13/266%50%-0.16
19/03/20262nd7/282%83%+0.02
23/05/20262nd12/137%93%+0.56
18/06/20268th50/10%74%+0.74
27/06/20263rd7/282%75%-0.07
25/07/20261st10/382%100%+0.18
01/08/20262nd25/10%96%+0.96
19/08/20266th17/255%75%+0.20
22/08/20266th12/137%74%+0.37