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4

Tuco Salamanca

4yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 106

Ayr · Ladbrokes Ayr Gold Cup (Heritage Handicap) · 6f

#17

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#17

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Progressive sprinter. Had done most of his winning on the all-weather prior to a career-best success in an Ascot handicap on Shergar Cup day last time, settling things with a good turn of foot on first start over 5f. Needs more again off 6 lb higher in a deeper race, though.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.2
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Yarmouth 24/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 82 · 6f3y Sft 130 · beat its mark24/07/2025 · OR 82 par24/074OR 823 @ Newcastle 21/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 87 · 6f Std 132 · beat its mark21/08/2025 · OR 87 parBHA93 @ Curragh 14/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 23 · OR 93 · 6f Yie 127 · below its mark14/09/2025 · OR 93 par14/0993OR 932 @ Ascot 03/10/2025 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 93 · 6f Sft 131 · below its mark03/10/2025 · OR 93 par3 @ Kempton 28/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 92 · 6f Sta 132 · beat its mark28/03/2026 · OR 92 par28/033OR 922 @ York 13/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 22 · OR 99 · 6f Gd 134 · beat its mark13/05/2026 · OR 99 par2 @ Newcastle 27/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 98 · 6f Sta 136 · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 98 par27/062OR 982 @ Goodwood 01/08/2026 · Pos 14th of 27 · OR 101 · 6f GF 131 · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 101 par2 @ Ascot 08/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 100 · 5f GF 140 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 100 par8/082OR 100projClass-projected finish: 4th of 25
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-08Ascot21st1st0
2026-08-01Goodwood214th14th0
2026-06-27Newcastle21st1st0
2026-05-13York26th6th0
2026-03-28Kempton31st2nd−1
2025-10-03Ascot29th9th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/073/1027/068/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 2558% of fieldRange 1-17 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength69%

Delivery trend +2.6% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 25. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/07/20251st5/287%100%+0.13
21/08/20251st7/282%100%+0.18
14/09/20255th6/168%82%+0.13
03/10/20259th9/276%11%-0.65
28/03/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
13/05/20266th5/174%76%+0.03
27/06/20261st13/266%100%+0.34
01/08/202614th14/126%50%+0.24
08/08/20261st4/179%100%+0.21