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25

Twilight Calls

8yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 95

Ayr · Ladbrokes Ayr Gold Cup (Heritage Handicap) · 6f

#5

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Well held in last year's renewal of this race. Rejuvenated by the application of a visor this summer, scoring under a confident ride at Glorious Goodwood (5f) and only narrowly denied a hat-trick when ½-length second in the Portland at Doncaster last time. Thriving, though 5f perhaps his optimum.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength48%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 5.6)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Meydan 06/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR - · 6f 1316/02C?C0 @ Meydan 20/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR - · 5f 121C0 @ Meydan 06/03/2026 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR - · 6f Gd 1226/03C?3 @ Newcastle 27/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 82 · 6f1y Std 127 · beat its mark27/03/2026 · OR 82 par4 @ Sandown 12/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 80 · 5f10y Goo 135 · beat its mark12/06/2026 · OR 80 par12/064OR 804 @ Yarmouth 18/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 80 · 5f42y GF 134 · beat its mark18/06/2026 · OR 80 par3 @ Newmarket 10/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 87 · 5f GF 135 · beat its mark10/07/2026 · OR 87 par10/073OR 872 @ Goodwood 28/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 23 · OR 90 · 5f Goo 124 · beat its mark28/07/2026 · OR 90 par2 @ Doncaster 12/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 21 · OR 94 · 5f143y Gd 129 · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 94 par12/092OR 94projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 25
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Doncaster22nd2nd0
2026-07-28Goodwood21st1st0
2026-07-10Newmarket31st2nd−1
2026-06-18Yarmouth42nd4th−2
2026-06-12Sandown41st3rd−2
2026-03-27Newcastle36th7th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/0227/0310/0712/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 2596% of fieldRange 1-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength77%

Delivery trend +0.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 25.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/02/20266th16/116%58%+0.43
20/02/20265th12/137%69%+0.32
06/03/20268th17/255%46%-0.09
27/03/20266th9/153%62%+0.09
12/06/20261st5/287%100%+0.13
18/06/20262nd10/1195%80%-0.15
10/07/20261st8/158%100%+0.42
28/07/20261st6/168%100%+0.32
12/09/20262nd11/271%95%+0.24