6
Two Tribes
5yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 103
Ayr · Ladbrokes Ayr Gold Cup (Heritage Handicap) · 6f
#22
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#22
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength24%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 9.3 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.0
Today: 2
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Ascot | 2 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Ascot | 2 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Goodwood | 2 | 27th | 27th | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Ascot | 2 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Newmarket | 2 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Royal Ascot | 2 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish20th of 2521% of fieldRange 7-25 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength8%
Delivery trend -2.2% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 20th of 25. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/01/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 92% | +0.19 |
| 28/02/2026 | 11th | 5/1 | 74% | 29% | -0.45 |
| 06/03/2026 | 11th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |
| 20/06/2026 | 12th | 33/1 | 0% | 58% | +0.58 |
| 11/07/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 25/07/2026 | 2nd | 28/1 | 0% | 93% | +0.93 |
| 01/08/2026 | 27th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 08/08/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 56% | -0.15 |
| 05/09/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 71% | -0.10 |