4
Gold Key
2yo Colt · 9-7
Ayr · British Stallion Studs EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race) · 7f 50y
#3
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#3
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Thirsk | 3 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-25 | Newcastle | 4 | 9th | 11th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +36.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07/2026 | 9th | 22/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 14/08/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |