5
Classy Clarets
5yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 77
Ayr · Jordan Electrics Handicap · 7f 50y
#4
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
7%
Place Prob
13%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength40%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Southwell | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-17 | Catterick | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-16 | Hamilton | 6 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-07-14 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-07-08 | Catterick | 6 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-06-30 | Musselburgh | 6 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +6.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 86% | -0.02 |
| 06/06/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 22/06/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 43% | -0.10 |
| 30/06/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 08/07/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 14/07/2026 | 1st | 4/7 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 16/07/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 17/08/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 88% | +0.51 |
| 31/08/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |