IvyArcIvyArc
8

Cotai Belle

3yo Filly · 9-6 · OR 79

Ayr · Jordan Electrics Handicap · 7f 50y

#3

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

8%

Place Prob

14%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

A dual 5f scorer in 2025 and proving notably consistent this season, making the frame for a sixth start in a row at Thirsk (7f) 2 weeks ago. Should remain competitive.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength85%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.4 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ York 21/08/2025 · Pos 21st of 21 · OR 81 · 6f Goo 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/08/2025 · OR 81 par21/082OR 811 @ Redcar 04/10/2025 · Pos 9th of 15 · OR 80 · 5f217y Goo 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/10/2025 · OR 80 par4 @ Ripon 16/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR 80 · 6f GS 135 · beat its mark16/04/2026 · OR 80 par16/044OR 803 @ Ripon 17/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 78 · 6f Goo 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/05/2026 · OR 78 par2 @ York 12/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 79 · 6f Gd 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/06/2026 · OR 79 par12/062OR 794 @ Carlisle 09/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 80 · 5f182y Goo 136 · beat its mark09/07/2026 · OR 80 par4 @ Leicester 22/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 80 · 6f Goo 137 · beat its mark22/07/2026 · OR 80 par22/074OR 802 @ York 20/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 19 · OR 80 · 7f GS 114 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/08/2026 · OR 80 par3 @ Thirsk 05/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 79 · 7f Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 79 par5/093OR 79projClass-projected finish: 1st of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Thirsk33rd2nd+1
2026-08-20York24th2nd+2
2026-07-22Leicester42nd2nd0
2026-07-09Carlisle42nd2nd0
2026-06-12York22nd0th+2
2026-05-17Ripon32nd1st+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0817/0522/075/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1291% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength88%

Delivery trend +3.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/08/202521st11/142%0%-0.42
04/10/20259th50/10%43%+0.43
16/04/20268th11/271%42%-0.29
17/05/20262nd22/10%88%+0.88
12/06/20262nd25/10%91%+0.91
09/07/20262nd2/189%86%-0.04
22/07/20262nd85/4089%75%-0.14
20/08/20264th40/10%83%+0.83
05/09/20263rd13/266%60%-0.06