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4

Dwindling Funds

5yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 78

Ayr · Jordan Electrics Handicap · 7f 50y

#2

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

22%

Place Prob

23%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Likeable type who won 6 times during a remarkable 2025. Had been knocking at the door this summer and added to his tally in 15-runner event at York in July. Found run of good form halted at Hamilton but quickly back on track when sixth of 19 back at aforementioned track 13 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength63%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Musselburgh 12/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 74 · 1m208y Gd 116 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/04/2026 · OR 74 par12/043OR 744 @ Musselburgh 26/04/2026 · Pos 11th of 13 · OR 76 · 1m2y Goo 136 · below its mark26/04/2026 · OR 76 par4 @ York 13/05/2026 · Pos 12th of 17 · OR 75 · 1m3f188y Gd 125 · beat its mark13/05/2026 · OR 75 par13/054OR 754 @ Ayr 19/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 73 · 1m2f Sft 128 · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 73 par3 @ Musselburgh 30/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 72 · 1m208y Goo 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/06/2026 · OR 72 par30/063OR 723 @ Ayr 05/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 72 · 1m Gd 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/07/2026 · OR 72 par4 @ York 25/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR 76 · 7f192y Goo 132 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 76 par25/074OR 763 @ Hamilton 11/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 79 · 1m1f35y Goo 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/08/2026 · OR 79 par4 @ York 06/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 19 · OR 79 · 7f192y GS 136 · beat its mark06/09/2026 · OR 79 par6/094OR 79projClass-projected finish: 4th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-06York46th6th0
2026-08-11Hamilton39th8th+1
2026-07-25York41st1st0
2026-07-05Ayr32nd1st+1
2026-06-30Musselburgh32nd1st+1
2026-06-19Ayr44th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/0419/0625/076/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1282% of fieldRange 1-14 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength61%

Delivery trend -3.0% per run

What the projection says

Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 3rd of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/04/20262nd28/10%91%+0.91
26/04/202611th9/488%17%-0.71
13/05/202612th18/15%31%+0.26
19/06/20264th13/266%67%+0.01
30/06/20262nd12/137%88%+0.51
05/07/20262nd10/382%89%+0.06
25/07/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
11/08/20269th10/147%33%-0.14
06/09/20266th11/271%72%+0.01