IvyArcIvyArc
7

King's School

5yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 76

Ayr · Jordan Electrics Handicap · 7f 50y

#10

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Confirmed promise of his previous start when registering another Newcastle victory (7f) to his tally in May. Ran well back on turf when runner-up at Chester in June but has been below form all 3 outings since.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength33%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Newcastle 17/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 73 · 7f14y Std 136 · beat its mark17/10/2025 · OR 73 par17/105OR 735 @ Redcar 04/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 73 · 7f Goo 136 · beat its mark04/11/2025 · OR 73 par5 @ Newcastle 02/12/2025 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 74 · 7f14y Std 135 · below its mark02/12/2025 · OR 74 par2/125OR 745 @ Newcastle 20/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 73 · 7f15y Std 133 · beat its mark20/04/2026 · OR 73 par5 @ Newcastle 19/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 73 · 7f14y Std 133 · beat its mark19/05/2026 · OR 73 par19/055OR 734 @ Chester 12/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 78 · 7f1y GS 154 · beat its mark12/06/2026 · OR 78 par4 @ Doncaster 09/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 79 · 7f6y GF 142 · beat its mark09/07/2026 · OR 79 par9/074OR 793 @ Thirsk 01/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 15 · OR 78 · 7f Goo 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 78 par4 @ Southwell 27/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 77 · 7f14y Std 130 · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 77 par27/084OR 77projClass-projected finish: 8th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-27Southwell45th5th0
2026-08-01Thirsk38th7th+1
2026-07-09Doncaster45th5th0
2026-06-12Chester42nd2nd0
2026-05-19Newcastle51st2nd−1
2026-04-20Newcastle53rd4th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/1020/049/0727/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1227% of fieldRange 2-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength39%

Delivery trend +1.5% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 12.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/10/20253rd9/153%82%+0.29
04/11/20253rd16/116%85%+0.69
02/12/20258th9/276%30%-0.46
20/04/20263rd22/10%85%+0.85
19/05/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
12/06/20262nd4/179%90%+0.11
09/07/20265th9/153%56%+0.03
01/08/20268th33/10%50%+0.50
27/08/20265th25/10%60%+0.60