13
Sailthisshipalone
5yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 74
Ayr · Jordan Electrics Handicap · 7f 50y
#7
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#7
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength33%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | Ayr | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-17 | Pontefract | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Pontefract | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-26 | Newcastle | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Doncaster | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Pontefract | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1255% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength64%
Delivery trend +0.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/11/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 25/11/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 07/04/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 29/04/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 63% | -0.22 |
| 05/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 26/06/2026 | 9th | 22/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 07/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 75% | -0.01 |
| 17/07/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 17/09/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |