12
Selection
4yo Filly · 9-5 · OR 75
Ayr · Jordan Electrics Handicap · 7f 50y
#11
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | Ayr | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-29 | Pontefract | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-22 | Pontefract | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-16 | Thirsk | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-04-25 | Southwell | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-05 | Southwell | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 129% of fieldRange 3-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength27%
Delivery trend -2.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/01/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 60% | +0.44 |
| 24/02/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 90% | +0.37 |
| 21/03/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 90% | +0.14 |
| 05/04/2026 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 25/04/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 16/05/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 22/05/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 89% | +0.07 |
| 29/06/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 33% | -0.40 |
| 17/09/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 73% | +0.36 |