Big Frosty

3yo Colt · 8-10 · OR 87

Belmont Park · Race 10 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 1f

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

Place Prob

11%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼2

Strength79%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.3

Today:

Class gap: +2.2

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-20	Saratoga	?	5th	0th	+4	9.8
2026-05-17	Belmont At The Big A	?	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2025-11-08	Aqueduct	?	9th	6th	+3	4.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price

Trend▲

Strength100%

Delivery trend +10.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 11. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
08/11/2025	9th	16/1	16%	27%	+0.11
17/05/2026	2nd	3/1	84%	89%	+0.05
20/08/2026	5th	25/1	0%	33%	+0.33