Alyeska
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 98
Belmont Park · Race 2 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
43%
Place Prob
32%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 2.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-09-21 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-08-09 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2025-07-05 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2024-09-20 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -10.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09/2024 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 05/07/2025 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 09/08/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 86% | -0.01 |
| 21/09/2025 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 12/07/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 50% | -0.39 |