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2

Boston's Phinest

4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 90

Belmont Park · Race 2 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f 110y

#4

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

4%

Place Prob

10%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength39%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.7 /10 (raw 2.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Belmont At The Big A 24/05/2025 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 79 · 6f Gd 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/05/2025 · OR 79 par24/05C5OR 79C5 @ Belmont At The Big A 14/06/2025 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 81 · 6f 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/06/2025 · OR 81 parC5 @ Saratoga 16/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 82 · 1m110y Fm 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/07/2025 · OR 82 par16/07C5OR 82C5 @ Saratoga 13/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 92 · 1m Fm 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark13/08/2025 · OR 92 parC5 @ Belmont At The Big A 08/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 83 · 6f Fm 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/05/2026 · OR 83 par8/05C5OR 83C5 @ Saratoga 03/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 83 · 5f110y Fm 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/06/2026 · OR 83 parC5 @ Belmont At The Big A 28/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 84 · 6f Fm 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/06/2026 · OR 84 par28/06C5OR 84C6 @ Saratoga 17/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 89 · 5f110y Fm 121 · beat its mark17/07/2026 · OR 89 parC6 @ Saratoga 21/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 88 · 5f110y Fm 126 · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 88 par21/08C6OR 88projClass-projected finish: 1st of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-21Saratoga?1st1st0
2026-07-17Saratoga?1st1st0
2026-06-28Belmont At The Big A?1st0th+1
2026-06-03Saratoga?2nd1st+1
2026-05-08Belmont At The Big A?3rd2nd+1
2025-08-13Saratoga?5th4th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/0513/0828/0621/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength94%

Delivery trend -0.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 8.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/05/20254th7/163%73%+0.10
14/06/20252nd7/163%75%+0.12
16/07/20253rd12/137%75%+0.38
13/08/20255th4/179%20%-0.59
08/05/20263rd7/163%78%+0.15
03/06/20262nd11/271%90%+0.19
28/06/20261st6/492%100%+0.08
17/07/20261st15/890%100%+0.10
21/08/20261st2/799%100%+0.02