4
Filly Freedom
4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 86
Belmont Park · Race 2 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength17%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 2.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.8
Today:
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-07 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-20 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-11-08 | Aqueduct | ? | 7th | 1st | +5 |
| 2025-10-03 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-07-05 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 5-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength3%
Delivery trend -12.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/06/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 90% | +0.74 |
| 05/07/2025 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 86% | -0.09 |
| 03/10/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 08/11/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 25% | -0.01 |
| 20/03/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 75% | -0.11 |
| 18/04/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 07/06/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 25% | -0.49 |