8
So Sophia
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 87
Belmont Park · Race 2 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-25 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-04-19 | Aqueduct | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-01-07 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-11-27 | Gulfstream | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 6-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -7.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07/2025 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 14/08/2025 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 30/08/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 88% | -0.01 |
| 27/11/2025 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 07/01/2026 | 10th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 19/04/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 03/05/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 14/06/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 25/06/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |