Candytown
4yo Colt · 8-12 · OR 96
Belmont Park · Race 3 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 7f
#7
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-11-01 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-09-28 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-08-30 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -7.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/02/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 86% | -0.02 |
| 19/04/2025 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 07/08/2025 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 22% | -0.25 |
| 30/08/2025 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 28/09/2025 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 50% | -0.39 |
| 01/11/2025 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 70% | -0.12 |
| 06/06/2026 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 0% | -0.84 |
| 11/07/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 63% | -0.06 |
| 15/08/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 25% | -0.62 |