8
Final Verdict
6yo Horse · 8-12 · OR 104
Belmont Park · Race 3 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 7f
#3
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
10%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Saratoga | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-11-15 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-09-27 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength71%
Delivery trend +1.0% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 3rd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07/2025 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 75% | -0.14 |
| 02/08/2025 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 78% | -0.05 |
| 30/08/2025 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 33% | -0.49 |
| 27/09/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 80% | +0.43 |
| 15/11/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 91% | +0.09 |
| 25/04/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 89% | +0.13 |
| 05/06/2026 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 82% | -0.09 |
| 11/07/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 13% | -0.03 |
| 04/09/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |