2
Fond Farewell
4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 101
Belmont Park · Race 3 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 7f
#1
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
70%
Place Prob
45%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 2.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-06 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-05 | Turfway Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-07-18 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-06-06 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 2-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength72%
Delivery trend -4.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/06/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 18/07/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 56% | +0.03 |
| 05/02/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 83% | -0.08 |
| 06/03/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |