4
Ice Chocolat
9yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 102
Belmont Park · Race 3 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 7f
#2
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
17%
Place Prob
22%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-23 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-06-20 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-08 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength86%
Delivery trend +5.9% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08/2025 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 17% | -0.60 |
| 28/09/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 60% | -0.16 |
| 02/11/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 08/02/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 57% | -0.25 |
| 26/04/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 75% | +0.04 |
| 17/05/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 20/06/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 75% | -0.09 |
| 23/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 83% | -0.05 |
| 04/09/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 44% | -0.08 |