6
John Jay
7yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 85
Belmont Park · Race 3 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 7f
#9
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength2%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Monmouth Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-08-16 | Monmouth Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Monmouth Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Monmouth Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Monmouth Park | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-05-09 | Monmouth Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 2-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength27%
Delivery trend +3.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 20/09/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 24/10/2025 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 09/05/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 31/05/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 83% | +0.57 |
| 21/06/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 18/07/2026 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 16/08/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 30/08/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |