Run Curtis Run
7yo Horse · 8-12 · OR 101
Belmont Park · Race 3 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 7f
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 3.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-23 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-05-16 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-04-26 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-12-22 | Turfway Park | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 27/09/2025 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 17% | -0.31 |
| 25/10/2025 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 67% | +0.06 |
| 22/12/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 26/04/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 86% | +0.12 |
| 16/05/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |
| 27/06/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 23/08/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 04/09/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 56% | +0.03 |