9
War Stride
6yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 95
Belmont Park · Race 3 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 7f
#5
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Aqueduct | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-08-30 | Saratoga | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength68%
Delivery trend -0.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/05/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 13/06/2025 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 83% | +0.31 |
| 04/07/2025 | 5th | 6/4 | 92% | 20% | -0.72 |
| 30/08/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 25/04/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 24/05/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 60% | +0.44 |
| 20/06/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 60% | +0.44 |
| 18/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |
| 15/08/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |