5
Big Hat Willie
6yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 85
Belmont Park · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-07-30 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-14 | Aqueduct | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength76%
Delivery trend +6.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/01/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 11/02/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 27/02/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 14/03/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 20% | -0.38 |
| 16/05/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 14/06/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 09/07/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 29% | -0.42 |
| 30/07/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 19/08/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 57% | +0.20 |