Disarmed

6yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 83

Belmont Park · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f

Rank

Odds

15/1

Win Prob

97%

Place Prob

76%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼1

Strength43%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 3.7)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.7

Today:

Class gap: +0.8

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-19	Saratoga	?	6th	5th	+1	5.2
2026-07-17	Saratoga	?	7th	5th	+2	5.4
2026-05-15	Belmont At The Big A	?	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-05-07	Belmont At The Big A	?	6th	4th	+2	6.4
2026-02-19	Aqueduct	?	4th	4th	0	6.0
2025-12-10	Aqueduct	?	5th	5th	0	5.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 5-9 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▲

Strength19%

Delivery trend +2.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
24/11/2024	6th	16/1	16%	17%	+0.01
18/01/2025	5th	8/1	58%	43%	-0.15
09/03/2025	2nd	11/4	86%	75%	-0.11
10/12/2025	5th	11/2	71%	33%	-0.38
19/02/2026	4th	12/1	37%	40%	+0.03
07/05/2026	6th	9/2	76%	17%	-0.60
15/05/2026	5th	6/1	68%	33%	-0.35
17/07/2026	7th	25/1	0%	14%	+0.14
19/08/2026	6th	25/1	0%	29%	+0.29