Kid Billy
6yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 87
Belmont Park · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
11%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 4.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | Saratoga | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Saratoga | ? | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2026-04-17 | Aqueduct | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-03-21 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-02-15 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-03-15 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | -2th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/11/2024 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 11/01/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 82% | +0.00 |
| 08/02/2025 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 83% | -0.06 |
| 15/03/2025 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 15/02/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 21/03/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 80% | +0.09 |
| 17/04/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 71% | +0.08 |
| 09/07/2026 | 11th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 30/07/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |