Red State
5yo Horse · 8-12 · OR 91
Belmont Park · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
8/5
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 3.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
| 2026-04-19 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-03-13 | Fair Grounds | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2025-08-09 | Ellis Park | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2025-06-13 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -6.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/01/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 73% | +0.46 |
| 07/03/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 26/04/2025 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 13/06/2025 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 09/08/2025 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 0% | -0.89 |
| 13/03/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 25% | -0.43 |
| 19/04/2026 | 7th | 15/8 | 90% | 0% | -0.90 |
| 04/06/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 83% | +0.15 |
| 09/07/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 86% | -0.04 |