Tenebris
8yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 84
Belmont Park · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-06-26 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Laurel Park | ? | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2026-05-03 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-11 | Laurel Park | ? | 9th | 7th | +2 |
| 2026-03-15 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.2% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 6th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/01/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 80% | +0.33 |
| 05/02/2026 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 13% | -0.45 |
| 21/02/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 15/03/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 11/04/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 03/05/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 83% | +0.23 |
| 14/06/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 26/06/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 40% | -0.18 |
| 29/07/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |