5
River Of Deceit
2yo Colt · 8-11 · OR 84
Belmont Park · Race 5 - Maiden Special Weight · 6f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼1
Strength9%
What the class read says
Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.6 /10 (raw 2.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-06-18 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1170% of fieldRange 7-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength40%
Delivery trend -22.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/06/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 88% | +0.03 |
| 27/08/2026 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 71% | -0.19 |