Unauthorized
3yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 82
Belmont Park · Race 7 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 4.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Saratoga | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-03-13 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-02-19 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-01-02 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2025-12-13 | Turfway Park | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/2025 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 73% | +0.07 |
| 13/12/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 64% | -0.10 |
| 02/01/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 19/02/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 71% | +0.00 |
| 13/03/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 05/08/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 21/08/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |