Leon Blue
4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 97
Belmont Park · Race 8 - Allowance · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 3.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Saratoga | BHA93 | 6th | 11th | −4 |
| 2026-07-18 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-03 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-04-24 | Aqueduct | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2025-10-11 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2025-09-01 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +0.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/04/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 04/06/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 89% | +0.20 |
| 17/07/2025 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 01/09/2025 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 43% | -0.23 |
| 11/10/2025 | 8th | 4/1 | 79% | 13% | -0.66 |
| 24/04/2026 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 25% | -0.33 |
| 03/06/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 18/07/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 28/08/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |