6
Pandagate
5yo Horse · 8-12 · OR 99
Belmont Park · Race 8 - Allowance · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
66%
Place Prob
43%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength39%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 2.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.8
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-10 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2024-09-29 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2024-08-25 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2024-07-15 | Finger Lakes | BHA89 | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2024-03-30 | Meydan | ? | 3rd | -2th | +5 |
| 2024-02-25 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 5-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength29%
Delivery trend -5.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10/2023 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 09/12/2023 | 3rd | 11/8 | 93% | 75% | -0.18 |
| 25/02/2024 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 30/03/2024 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 80% | +0.19 |
| 15/07/2024 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 25/08/2024 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 29/09/2024 | 3rd | 5/6 | 96% | 50% | -0.46 |
| 10/08/2025 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 57% | -0.27 |