9
Willintoriskitall
6yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 95
Belmont Park · Race 8 - Allowance · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: -1.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-06-28 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-05-15 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-04-04 | Aqueduct | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-03-21 | Aqueduct | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-11 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 3-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength38%
Delivery trend +2.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09/2025 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 40% | -0.26 |
| 11/10/2025 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 01/01/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 40% | -0.47 |
| 11/02/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 21/03/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 33% | -0.40 |
| 04/04/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 33% | -0.52 |
| 15/05/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 67% | +0.06 |
| 28/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 75% | -0.01 |
| 26/07/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |